Credit：Visual China

Shares of Nvidia plunged as much as more than 6% at after-hours trading on Tuesday, even though the chipmaker posted stronger-than-expected results both the top and the bottom line. In the third fiscal quarter ended October 29, Nvidia revenue surged 206% year-over-year (YoY) to $18.12 billion, blowing away analysts’ estimates of $16.09 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.02 with a nearly six-fold YoY increase also beat the estimated $3.36. Data center, the segment including Nvidia’s cash cow AI chips, generated $14.51 billion with a 279% YoY increase, topping projection of $12.82 billion.

“Our strong growth reflects the broad industry platform transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI,” commented Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Tuesday. He said the era of generative AI is taking off and GPUs, CPUs and other Nivida’s offerings are “all growth engines in full throttle.”

Forwarding looking, Nvidia expected revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter to be $20.00 billion, plus or minus 2%. The guidance smashed the average analysts’ forecast of $17.9 billion, still less than their highest projection of $21 billion. More notably concerning is that Nvidia Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Colette Kress warned sales to China and other destinations that are subject to the latest U.S. export restrictions “will decline significantly in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024”, though the company believes the drop will be more than offset by strong growth in other regions. Kress also noted China and other aforementioned affected regions have consistently contributed about 20% to 25% of data center segment revenue over the past few quarters. 

This is Nvidia’s first forecast about negative impact of the export control on China. The U.S. Department of Commerce introduced a new rule on October 17 to limit China’s access to advanced semiconductors that could fuel breakthroughs in AI and sophisticated computers. The rule was supposed to come into effect following a 30-day public comment period. But Nvidia disclosed on that the U.S. government informed October 23 that the licensing requirements of a rule introduced last week, applicable to products having a “total processing performance” of 4800 or more and designed or marketed for datacenters, were effective immediately.

As a dominator of the market for AI chips, which empower AI systems including the large language model behind ChatGPT, Nvidia has modified some of flagship products including A100 and H100 for exports to China, including an alternative A800 chip, as the U.S. regulators last year banned it from selling its most advanced chips to China. But even A800, the weakened version of Nivida’s cutting-edge A100 processor, is not allowed for export without first obtaining a license according to the new restrictions.

A spokesman for Nvidia said late October that the company is seeking additional supply of advanced AI computing system, which use chips affected by the latest rule. The person said that the new export control will not have a meaningful impact in the near future. The Wall Street Journal reported right after the spokesperson’s remark that Nvidia could be forced to cancel next year orders from Chinese buyers. It suggested the company may face a hit of at least $5 billion as orders from major Chinese companies next year exceeded $5 billion.

TMTPost learned earlier this month that Nvidia will launch a new set of chips under the name of HGX H20, L20 PCle, L2 PClel for China market, though all of them are weakened version. Compared with H100, the HGX H20 has limitations on bandwidth and computing speed, and its overall computing power is about 80% less than that of H100, namely, the comprehensive computing performance of H20 is equal to 20% of H100.

Nvidia reiterated on Tuesday that the licensing requirements didn’t have a meaningful impact on its revenue in the third fiscal quarter as they were announced near the end of the quarter, and it had additional demand from customers outside of the effected destinations including China.

The CFO Kress said the Santa Clara, California-based company is working with customers in China and other affected regions to try to secure permission to deliver some of its products and on solutions that won’t trigger restrictions. Kress confirmed at an earnings conference that Nvidia will develop new compliant chips tailored for China market, but noted those won’t have material contributions to revenue in the current quarter. "Export controls will have a negative effect on our China business, and we do not have good visibility into the magnitude of that impact even over the long term," Kress told analyst.   

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