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Chinese automakers have to increase their annual sales to at least 3 million units, backed by global exports, if they want to be the last ones standing, and to be in the 3-million club, one has to expand beyond China, rather than being a player only operates in the domestic market, according to Brian Gu, the Vice chairman and President of Xpeng Inc.

“In five to 10 years, it’s going to be a much more concentrated market. I think the [number] of players will probably be reduced to less than 10 at the global stage,” said Gu at an interview with the Financial Times.

3 million is a very challenging task for electric vehicle (EV) companies even for BYD Co., the biggest manufactures in the sector by sales. BYD sold 1.8025 million vehicles in 2022, up 149.88% from a year ago, and kept recording triple-digit monthly growth in sales since entering into the year. 2022 saw BYD extended lead over its U.S. rival Tesla. Tesla not only failed to meet its own annual target of 1.5 million but also was overtaken by BYD, whose annual sales suggest at least 500,000 vehicles delivered more than Tesla in the past year. BYD said it has taken the first place in China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market for the tenth consecutive year.

Xpeng sold more than 120,000 vehicles in 2022, increasing 23% from a year earlier, but was still a laggard compared with peers amid an ongoing price war intensified by Tesla. Tesla slashed price by up to 13% in China on January 6, making the starting price of Model Y and Model 3 down to new low. Later that month, Xpeng, as one the first Chinese auto companies to follow suit, announced to offer a new round of price cuts between RMB20,000 to RMB36,000 for three EV models, cutting as much as 13%.

However, the forced price cuts didn’t boost sales in the first couple of months of the year. Xpeng delivered 7,002 vehicles with more than 54% yearly decline in March, bringing delivery of the quarter ended March to 18,320 units. That was at the low end of its guidance released in March, suggesting an almost 50% year-over-year (YoY) decline. BYD’s sales of 207,080 vehicles in March with a YoY 97.45% increase. Aion, a brand owned by the state-owned manufacturer Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (GAC), said its sales in March rose 97% YoY to 40,016 units, for the first time topping 40,000 vehicles. Li Auto delivered 20,823 vehicles that month with YoY growth of 89%, and NIO Inc’s delivery edged 3.9% higher to 10,378 units.

Gu blamed the sales dive for Xpeng’s new model launches and noted the price cutting pressure not not only causes competition but also creates hesitancy among consumers. But he expects the market to be stable in the second half of the year. Gu acknowledged that worsening US-China tensions complicated his company’s overseas expansion plans, and entry into the U.S. market for all the Chinese brands may become difficult. He remained optimistic on global expansion and saw plenty of growth opportunities outside China. Gu played down concerns on the Biden Administration‘s further restriction on China’s access to advanced chip technology. “So far, none of our partnerships has been impacted by any of the political noise,” he said.

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