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NIO now expects to deliver 38,500 to 39,500 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2022, down around 10% to 18% from its outlook of 43,000 to 48,000 vehicles released in November, according to a statement on Tuesday. The electric vehicle (EV) maker blamed the adjustment for challenges in deliveries and productions, together with supply chain constraints, caused by the outbreak of the Covid-19 variant in major Chinese cities this month. “While our teams have strived to maintain continuous operations on all fronts, we were not able to reach our full capacities, particularly when there have been disruptions on delivery and registration procedures involving users,” the statement said.

The latest delivery outlook suggests NIO’s delivery in December could just have a moderate growth. NIO is expected to deliver 14,263 to 15,263 units in the month as it set a monthly record of 14,178 units in November, representing year-over-year (YoY) increase of 40.9% and month-over-month (MoM) increase of 40.9%. The record brought its total delivery in the first eleven months of 2022 to 106,671 units, for the first time topping 100,000 units in a year.

The cut of guidance pushed back hope of robust recovery from the Covid related disruptions. Based on the previous outlook, NIO would post a strong YoY increase of delivery from 71.8% to 91.7% during the last quarter of the year, compared with the YoY growth of 29.3% in the third quarter. Ahead of the third quarter results unveiled last month, Deutsche Bank estimated that NIO lost at least 2,000 to 3,000 units of outputs in October, when its production and supply of parts was severely disrupted by the Covid lockdowns. Deutsche Bank believed NIO’s NEOPark F2 plant, which just began ramping up the affordable model ET5, a rival of Tesla’s Model 3, suffered greater impact. And the bank still doubted its capacity in the fourth quarter even the company said it has resumed normal operations since early November.

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